Introducing Dota 2 Reshuffle Rating

ESPORTS scientists have developed an eerily accurate rating system designed to predict when a particular Dota 2 professional team will likely change members or disband, defined as switching two or more players simultaneously.

Each player is assigned a Reshuffle Rating, or RSR, that indicates the average number of months a player spends on his teams, taking into consideration his or her team history since 2011. Averaging five combined RSRs can provide a startlingly accurate picture of when a team will undergo a major reshuffle.

For example, pre-February Team Tinker’s lineup included BuLba (8.00 RSR), Qojqva (5.00), Singsing (5.29), EGM (6.83), and Pajkatt (5.00) for a combined team RSR of 6.02 months. Team Tinker’s first official match occurred on August 11, 2014, exactly 6.06 months before February 13, 2015, when Tinker released Sing and Bulldog from the roster.

Post February shuffle Tinker’s RSR after adding Wayto (7.75) and Jerax (4.67) rises to 6.35 months, which indicates that the team should disband sometime in late August after TI5.

RSR does not include data from players that have just joined teams (like Patsoul on Tinker) or players that just started playing as progamers officially for less than a year (like Sumail). At the moment, the team with the highest RSR is Natus Vincere, whose 28.42 rating is boosted considerably by XBOCT (52.00) and Dendi (50.00).

While Evil Geniuses (10.80), Secret, (9.39), Cloud9 (8.23) and Alliance (7.31) round out the top five teams, the team with the lowest rating is the newly formed Burden United, whose 4.02 RSR predicts the team to reshuffle or disband immediately after TI5 qualifiers in late May.

Burden currently has the player with the lowest RSR in all of Dota 2, ComeWithMe, whose 2.60 month rating across ten teams does not bode well for Burden’s longevity. While CWM holds the overall lowest RSR, another player, Demon (4.00), holds the record for the most 1-month teams (six). Without his 23-month stay on EG, Demon’s rating would be 1.29.